SF writer Gene Wolfe wrote an alternate history short story, "Straw", where the hot air balloon was invented shortly after the fall of Rome. It's in THE BEST OF GENE WOLFE, and it's also in STOREYS FROM THE OLD HOTEL, where he writes;
"Every so often I like to think of things that could have been invented a long time before they actually were - or that might easily have been invented but weren't. For example, for hundreds of years, wars among the Greeks (possibly the most briliantly creative people in history) were fought by heavy infantrymen armed with long spears and circular shields. Most of them were won by the Spartans, the ackowledged masters of holplite warfare. Then, around 379 BC, Thebes produced a general of real genius named Epaminondas. And Epaminondas came up with the simplest great military innovation I know of: he cut a notch out of each round shield. That was all it was. Instead of looking like a whole cracker, the shield looked like a cracker from which a tiny bite had been taken. But that bite permitteed the soldier to use his left hand to assist his right in managing his long spear, and the Thebans crushed the Spartans at Leuctra.
"The point is that Epaminondas' notch could have been cut a thousand years sooner -- in Homer's day, for example. In the same way, it seems obvious that the hot-air balloon could have been invented well before the end of the ancient world. You need a little rope (it's been around for a long time), a lot of silk (which by then was coming steadily along the spice routes), some straw, and an iron basket to burn it in. There are no moving parts, and the design is simplicity itself -- a bag held over a fire. But if the hot-air balloon had been invented in 500 AD, what would have been done with it?"
I enjoyed this investigation a lot; it's fascinating to think of the uses to which this could have been put.
You may be interested in a related (ongoing) project I've been working on, to survey ‘paths untaken’--cases of historical technological delay, restraint, or post-development abandonment, and to try and assess their rationales or contributing factors. So far, it includes about 160 candidate cases. Many of these need much further analysis and investigation, but you can find the preliminary longlist of cases at https://airtable.com/shrVHVYqGnmAyEGsz/tbl7LczhShIesRi0j , and an initial writeup and pitch of the project at: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pJuS5iGbazDDzXwJN/the-history-epistemology-and-strategy-of-technological -- I'd be interested to hear any thoughts or comments.
My opinion is that early balloon flights were wildly dangerous, and that people of the time knew that. They first tested it with animals, and then proposed testing it with condemned prisoners. The first manned flight was a success, but had to land early to avoid catching fire. Jacques Charles in the first hydrogen balloon flew once, injured his ears (from going up too high too fast), and never flew again. And an alarming number of later balloon/airship designs crashed and killed their crews. Sophie Blanchard made a living as a sort of daredevil, showing off her ballooning skills, but she eventually crashed and died. Count Zeppelin survived because he was a rich man who could pay other people to test his inventions, but almost all of his Zeppelins eventually crashed.
Given all these dangers, and the questionable utility, it's not surprising that people weren't rushing to get into balloons as fast as the technology was possible.
SF writer Gene Wolfe wrote an alternate history short story, "Straw", where the hot air balloon was invented shortly after the fall of Rome. It's in THE BEST OF GENE WOLFE, and it's also in STOREYS FROM THE OLD HOTEL, where he writes;
"Every so often I like to think of things that could have been invented a long time before they actually were - or that might easily have been invented but weren't. For example, for hundreds of years, wars among the Greeks (possibly the most briliantly creative people in history) were fought by heavy infantrymen armed with long spears and circular shields. Most of them were won by the Spartans, the ackowledged masters of holplite warfare. Then, around 379 BC, Thebes produced a general of real genius named Epaminondas. And Epaminondas came up with the simplest great military innovation I know of: he cut a notch out of each round shield. That was all it was. Instead of looking like a whole cracker, the shield looked like a cracker from which a tiny bite had been taken. But that bite permitteed the soldier to use his left hand to assist his right in managing his long spear, and the Thebans crushed the Spartans at Leuctra.
"The point is that Epaminondas' notch could have been cut a thousand years sooner -- in Homer's day, for example. In the same way, it seems obvious that the hot-air balloon could have been invented well before the end of the ancient world. You need a little rope (it's been around for a long time), a lot of silk (which by then was coming steadily along the spice routes), some straw, and an iron basket to burn it in. There are no moving parts, and the design is simplicity itself -- a bag held over a fire. But if the hot-air balloon had been invented in 500 AD, what would have been done with it?"
I enjoyed this investigation a lot; it's fascinating to think of the uses to which this could have been put.
You may be interested in a related (ongoing) project I've been working on, to survey ‘paths untaken’--cases of historical technological delay, restraint, or post-development abandonment, and to try and assess their rationales or contributing factors. So far, it includes about 160 candidate cases. Many of these need much further analysis and investigation, but you can find the preliminary longlist of cases at https://airtable.com/shrVHVYqGnmAyEGsz/tbl7LczhShIesRi0j , and an initial writeup and pitch of the project at: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pJuS5iGbazDDzXwJN/the-history-epistemology-and-strategy-of-technological -- I'd be interested to hear any thoughts or comments.
My opinion is that early balloon flights were wildly dangerous, and that people of the time knew that. They first tested it with animals, and then proposed testing it with condemned prisoners. The first manned flight was a success, but had to land early to avoid catching fire. Jacques Charles in the first hydrogen balloon flew once, injured his ears (from going up too high too fast), and never flew again. And an alarming number of later balloon/airship designs crashed and killed their crews. Sophie Blanchard made a living as a sort of daredevil, showing off her ballooning skills, but she eventually crashed and died. Count Zeppelin survived because he was a rich man who could pay other people to test his inventions, but almost all of his Zeppelins eventually crashed.
Given all these dangers, and the questionable utility, it's not surprising that people weren't rushing to get into balloons as fast as the technology was possible.
Super interesting post! What do you think of the Nazca line balloon claim?